Hello, I spent the last hour figuring out what percent chance you have to go from a voter key to a Legendary key by opening it. Sorry for the long post but I found it interesting. Data and TL;DR is at the bottom! Background: I was hanging out on the survival server and @adriansop mentioned his brother ran a simulation to determine the average percent chance that you would get a legendary key from a voter key (it was a very small number). I decided I wanted to take a crack at it and see for myself, so I did. Programming: You can find the whole program here: [Python] # import random so we can generate a random number import random chance_of_l - Pastebin.com I used python for this because I'm most comfortable with the language. The first thing to figure out was how to simulate opening the crate and how to set it up. The only rewards we care about are the keys you can get from each case. In all crates, you can get 2 keys of the same kind of the crate you opened or one key for the crate above (except for voter crates, you have a chance to receive a rare key). The logic behind the percentage is as follows. We generate a number between 0 and 100 (opening a chest) and we are defining the location of each item within the chest. You can think about it like this: Voter Crate: |2 vote keys (5.67%)|1 common key(4.05%)|1 rare key(3.24%)|everything else in the crate(87.04%)| If the rand number ≤ 5.67, you get 2 vote keys. If the number is 5.67 < rand number ≤ 8.91, you get a common key. Then so on and so forth. To keep track of the keys, we have variables for each key type. We start with x amount of voter keys, 1 million in this case with 0 of every other type of key. Every time a crate is opened, we remove a key (based on the type of crate opened) from your "inventory" and if you get a key from the crate, your key count will be updated accordingly, if you don't get a key, there are no other changes made. Next, we need to actually open the crates which are a bunch of if statements within while loops: At the end we need to run some calculations then present the data. Data and Findings! I ran this simulation 1,000 times and averaged the results: Starting with 1,000,000 voter keys each time, here is the average key usage breakdown: Average keys opened (starting with 1,000,000.00): 1,222,465.09 The average amount of VOTER keys opened: 1,127,922.14 The average amount of COMMON keys opened: 51,302.97 The average amount of RARE keys opened: 42,942.86 The average amount of EPIC keys opened: 297.12 The average amount of LEGENDARY keys received: 7.095 % Chance of receiving a legendary key from a voter key: 5.805775334906097E-06 This means that every time you open a voter key, you have about a 0.00000581 % chance of that key getting you to a legendary key. So uhh sell your voter keys to me instead TL;DR You have a microscopic chance of going from a voter key to a legendary key by opening crates, don't do it, sell it for grass then invest said grass to buy a legendary key. Once you have that, open it, get iron and regret your life decisions!
Imagine that if you ever had that luck from a voter crate key to a legendary key and you get a disguise that you already have
I've seen someone ending up winning a legendary key from opening tons of vote keys. I dont remember their name though.
When I tried doing the math of it, I calculated 0.00045%, but I wonder how to actually calculate it because these results seem to be consistent of getting <10 legendary keys
Like I said in chat, this type of calculation is only really solvable with Bayes theorum. However barely anyone uses it and so people may find it easier to just make a simulation of the whole thing. Unless a prodigy mathetagician of odds joins the server one day, this is the most accurate we have so far.
Thank you for doing this Terminator! At least you're a dude who actually shows what he's done unlike practically everyone else on the server. The downside is that probably no one will buy my keys anymore, but it's worth the science
Thank you very much for the kind words, but don't worry, vote keys are still profitable! You make an average of 0.06 grass per key you open. Unless you are super unlucky. This code uses the average cost of items at the time of making.
It's somewhere in that range, plus it would take too long to open that many keys in practice so getting that amount of keys combined with the insane low odds, probably don't want to attempt this anyway, if you do, come buy keys from me
