Economy Let's value Eco keys.

Discussion in 'Discussion' started by KhalDrogo, Feb 22, 2021.

  1. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    Not sure how the value of rare keys was ever settled on but this is the haul from 64 Rare keys.

    upload_2021-2-22_19-14-58.png
    plus 53 stacks of cobble and $50,000.

    Drogo has never believed they were worth $16,000 each.
    Drogo now doubts they are even worth half of that.
     
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  2. Slybudda
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    Slybudda THE GOAT Premium

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    I feel like key prices should go down, because items in the crates overall aren't worth as much as the key itself.

    I'm aware this thread is about the rare key, buts lets talk about the legendary key for a second here.

    250k to even 350k for one legendary key. the most expensive item in the crate is around 1.5mil, then its 1mil for a few items, then the profit drops very quickly past the top tier items.

    I feel like the price inflation on keys is something that has overstayed its welcome at this rate, with the price of rare keys being 16k, yet the only items worth more is the slim chance of a pig, cow or epic key. the price feels far too high to me:woozy:
     
  3. FalcoFalcon
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    FalcoFalcon Active Member

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    Even thought this thread is for Economy the same issue is active over on Skyblock. The crate keys are highly overprized for what you can win.
     
  4. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    Drogo just worked out what it would cost to buy all of this from /shop at the massively marked up prices that /shop charges and it all comes to less than $491,840 including the cobble and the cash.
    That, divided by 64, being the number of rare keys used, gives you $7,685. so say $7,700

    In reality though, anyone spending money on rare keys is probably a donor and already has the bulk of these items from kits, so it's all worth very little. Even non donors could probably buy it all for about half of the /shop prices, which gives a more realistic value of only $4,000 per key. A quarter of what people are selling these for.
     
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  5. Calidre
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    Calidre Well-Known Member

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    As someone who opens too many keys I’d like to add my thoughts to this (and this statement can be totally verified as I have a key problem).

    Keys are heavily overpriced in general Voter keys and common keys I feel sit at a good price range as it’s possible to both lose or gain money as it should be. Voter keys sit between 1.1-1.2k for their value and commons are currently 2.5-3k. Compared to rare keys they are much better priced. The only items of more value in the current rare crate is a pig spawner, cow spawner, 2 rare keys or an epic key, as well as elite kit. Cow spawners have 1.06% chance, pig are 3.19%, epic are 1.06%, 2 Rares are 5.31% and elite kit is 1.06%.

    These are the only drops that are currently worth MORE than the current rate key values of about 15-16.5k. Just looking at the ones that are 1.06% percent, each of those has around a 1/94 chance of dropping. Based on current prices thats 1.4-1.55mil worth of keys before you get even one of those items based on percentage odds. Cow spawners are between 300-400k value, epic keys are 60-75k, and the elite kit is roughly worth 20k estimated. There are zero items that are even worth spending the money to try and gain value.

    Rare keys are heavily overpriced compared to the actual chance of value you are able to get from opening it. I see keys as should be close to a 50/50 split to losing your value or keeping it with maybe a small percentage being gaining value. But having only 5 items that are even worth more than a key be an option with 3 of them being barely over a 1% chance of drop is an insanely overpriced investment.

    There is no good way to enforce the value of keys other than the supply and demand of players. I feel the only way to change this is to do a rework on current percentage chances to current rare crate items but this is probably an unlikely option and won’t be changed. It’s super hard to enforce prices for something like keys so I can’t imagine coming up with a good way to get players to lower values. I think an alternate solution would be to sell all keys rare and above in /shop to give all the keys a cap price forcing players to sell lower
     
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  6. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    Ca1, not sure why you disagree with the original post but there is nothing there to disagree with. Doing so makes no sense at all. Drogo made no claims, only stating what he believes and you cannot disagree with that unless you claim to know Drogo’s mind better that himself.
    People need to think more before rating.
     
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  7. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    Regular vote keys also seem a bit over priced so Drogo used 640 of them and got the following.

    upload_2021-2-28_21-19-19.png

    Happy to receive peoples thoughts/input on individual item values.
    Based on this as it is, regular vote keys are worth $1000 each, so 64k for a stack. However given the time and effort required to use the vote keys, they are actually worth less. This is only the break even price so time would be better spent using profit shops rather than buying vote keys. Given that, Drogo thinks vote keys are only worth about 55k per stack.

    Drogo will continue to tally prizes received from common and rare keys, to get a more accurate value of those.
     
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  8. eunice
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    eunice epiphany Moderator Premium

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    Key prices definitely don't reflect its value,, but I guess there are players who prefer opening keys for these items and deem that they are quite valuable. I guess it depends

    But your stats really puts it in perspective
     
  9. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    Drogo is now taking a purely mathematical approach to determining key values because in reality, 64 keys is not enough to determine the true value of rare keys. In fact, using this approach, rare keys are worth closer to $13,000 but still need refining.

    The 640 spent on voter keys does give a much better estimate and this actually comes pretty close to the purely mathematical approach. See table below. $1000 vs $1125.

    The only thing that needs to be determined for the mathematical approach, is the actual value of the individual items (yellow column)

    upload_2021-3-1_17-57-8.png

    So essentially a single Voter key could win you as little as $1.09 worth of cobble or it could win you a rare key worth about $13,000 (still to be verified).
    But if you used many many Voter keys, then on average, you will get $1125.00 worth of items per key.

    Now because each crate contains keys for the next level of crate, it makes sense to first work out the value of the top tier crates items first so the value of these keys can be determined.

    Some of the values in the yellow column are pretty much guesses at this stage so Drogo is happy to take any input into the what people think the values in the yellow columns should be?? When prices are settled on, they will be co loured green.

    upload_2021-3-1_22-22-54.png

    Once they values of these items are set or at least at best guess, Drogo can look at the value of epic keys.
    As each keys value, is in part determined by the value of other keys, it's a bit of a circular process.
     

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  10. Adriansop
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    Adriansop Active Member

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    You may have gotten the value of elytra and totem of undying mixed up in the legendary crate. Overall it's a neat sheet!
     
  11. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    The values of the most of the rare items are just there as placeholder as Drogo doesn’t know their real value. I certainly have the elytra wrong. Thanks for pointing that out.
    Drogo will amend the table as values are known and just replace it in the post above rather than make new posts.
     
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  12. Calidre
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    Calidre Well-Known Member

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    If you need help with values you can send me a PM on discord or here and I’d be glad to help
     
  13. TroyBNL
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    upload_2021-3-2_11-4-48.png

    i opened 96 vote keys and got the following i think i got lucky but i think vote keys are at a reasonable price

    i also just calculated what they should be worth by doing the % of getting something x the price i did this for all the items counted them up and did them :100 i got around 1200 (i did use 16000 for rare keys so the value should be a little bit less)
     
  14. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Well-Known Member

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    With Calidre 's help Drogo now has completed his valuation of all Eco keys.
    While some of the values assigned to some items may be questioned, the mathematical process cannot.

    Final results are as follows.

    Legendary Key Value: $142,000
    Epic Key value: $50,800
    Rare key value: $11,100
    Common key value: $2,500
    Voter key value: $1,100

    Given that using these keys in bulk takes considerable time and effort, Drogo expects that stacks of keys should be marked down at least 5% on these values.


    Anyone wanting to see the breakdown can see it at this link:

    Key values - Google Sheets

    Happy to receive any feedback on the individual item values.
     
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