Skyblock Voter Crate Key Rewards Statistical Analysis *Edited 11/3*

**Edited 11/3/18 to reflect data of 996 recorded Voter Crate Keys and to compare these results to the new reward chance percentages displayed in the Voter Crate after the 10/23/18 server update.**

Anyone who has blown through more than a dozen Voter Crate Keys has got to be wondering if those percentages are correct. So I got to thinking: Just what is the exact chance of getting each possible item in the voter crate?

To answer this question, I recorded each result from using 576* voter crate keys as well as the results from 320 keys recorded by lilCupcakeFreak and 100 keys recorded by Bossgamer for a grand total of 996 spins at the Voter Crate slot machine! Additionally, I've attempted to estimate the actual value, in grass, of a single voter crate key based on the mean value of the reward yielded. So, without further blabber here are the stats:

Reward________Crate-Reported Chance________Times received from 996____Actual % Received
1 Stack Cobble*______16.2%__________________138_________________16.52%
2 Stacks Cobble*_____12.15%__________________91__________________10.84%
3 Stacks Cobble*_____8.10%__________________68__________________8.37%
4 Stacks Cobble*_____4.05%__________________32__________________3.54%
1 Grass Block________3.24%_________________ 36__________________ 3.92%
2 Grass Blocks_______2.43%_________________ 19___________________2.11%
5 Grass Blocks_______1.62%_________________ 8___________________0.80%
8 Glass Blocks_______3.24%_________________ 29___________________3.21%
16 Glass Blocks______1.62%__________________20___________________2.21%
8 Slimeballs________5.67%__________________56___________________6.83%
16 Cookies_________5.67%__________________59___________________6.73%
16 Lapis Lazuli______4.05%__________________37___________________4.62%
8 Bottle O' Ench._____6.48%_________________49____________________5.52%
16 Redstone________3.24%__________________29___________________3.11%
3 Iron Ingots_______1.62%__________________19____________________2.01%
6 Iron Ingots_______0.81%__________________8____________________0.80%
Iron Pick__________5.67%_________________ 47____________________4.82%
Dia. Pick_______ 0.81%_________________ 10____________________1.10%
1 Diamond_________0.32%_________________3____________________0.30%
2 Voter Keys________5.67%_________________63____________________6.83%
1 Common Key______4.05%_________________34____________________3.82%
1 Rare Key_________3.24%_________________22____________________2.61%

*When I started this project, I forgot to count the number of times I received each quantity of cobblestone for the first 64 keys I used. Since there are 4 different cobble rewards, I was unable to include the stats from the first 64 keys. Therefore, my stats for cobblestone rewards are based on 512 keys rather than 576.

When I initially compared these results to the old quoted percentages in the Voter Crate, there was a lot to talk about here and many glaring discrepancies, but now I'd say the new numbers are probably very accurate and the results from 996 actual draws are the stats that are a little bit off due to "luck". The only result that really seems puzzling is that 5 Grass Blocks was received about 2.02 times as frequently as it should have. This could just be due to lilCupcakeFreak's hot streak for the reward though, as she received this reward 5 of the total 8 times in he study even though only using about 1/3 of the study's keys. (Maybe you should ask her to use your keys for you if you want more grass!) Finally, if you're hoping for 5 Grass or 1 Diamond... don't hold your breath.

The final stage of my analysis is perhaps the most subjective: What is the actual value of a single Voter Crate Key? To attempt to estimate this, I placed a value on each reward item based on common shop prices in a few of the servers largest shops. Some items, such as cobble and cookies are of almost no value, while some items have significantly varying prices. If items were both wanted and for sale, I would average these two prices. I'm not going to list all the values I came up with, but if you'd like to know I can tell you. I added together the total item value from my 996 Voter Crate Keys and valued the items at 1244.52 Grass Blocks. The final value I appraise a single Voter Crate Key to be is... 1.25 Grass Blocks! To my surprise, this is not out of line with the common shop price for 1 Voter Crate Key for 1 Grass. So, if you're buying keys for 1 grass each, you might actually be getting a descent deal, but selling them 2 for 1 is kind of a rip...

Perhaps when I have a significant number of Common and Rare Keys, I will attempt to analyze their odds as well, however there seems to be little reason anymore to doubt the accuracy of the odds presented by the key crates. It seems likely they are very accurate now. Perhaps I will turn my attention toward other mysteries of the Skyblock...

Until then, I hope you all found my analysis of the Voter Key rewards interesting and it gives you something to think about the next time you're standing a the crate burning keys! Good luck and happy Skyblocking!

 

What is the point of this? I don't understand.

 

The point is simply to determine the actual chance of receiving each reward from the Voter Crate when using a key and to objectively estimate the value of a Voter Crate Key.

 

this is really helpful omg

and im sorry for your loss, maths killed your brain

 

i LOVE that someone has done this!! I was thinking of doing something like this aswell! I might still though, to see if my results add up to yours

 

This was very interesting to read! Good job on this little study. I wish I was able to do something like this but it all seems really complicated.

 

Weeks to collect the keys, several hours of using keys on the crate and then most of the day Saturday to do the write up.

 

Please do! It would be really interested to see if you came up with similar numbers. Also, I think the only way to collect enough data to analyze the common and rare keys would be with the collaboration of several players to save up their keys and share the results. So, if you're interested, start saving keys!!

 

Very informative, could you possibly do this with common and rare keys as well?
(Maybe even leg keys if ur willing to spend a lot of money?)

 

i'll save those up aswell, and i'll see if i can get some people to help me collect them

 

I don’t see why this would be helpful.... you could of gone to the other side of earth in the time u made that lol

 

It's just an informative study, if you don't understand it then you don't need to. Aren't you surprised with the results?

 

Well yes I mean, it gives me a better look on what I really get and how big the chances are.

 

Exactly! That's the point! It's just to let us know about what the exact chance of getting a certain item from the vote keys are since the current percentages that are stated in the crates themselves are wrong.

 

This is really interesting to see it laid down compared to its suggestive totals. Having never received a diamond from the voter crate I was beginning to wonder whether the suggested chances were actually correct..

I admire the time you put into creating this, and it's actually really helpful to players when others direct them to the voter crate for things they might need.

All in all, woah. I am enlightened, thank you.

 

Well yes, ik I figured that out

 

Awesome, thanks!

 

Yes! I'm going to start collecting data on the other keys too with the help of anyone who wants to accurately keep track of the rewards they are getting and report. I think if we pool our key data together, we can get a pretty good idea of the common and rare rewards. Legendary might take awhile...

 

Using your template this are my stats for 320 keys:

Reward________Crate-Reported Chance________Times received out of 320________Actual Chance (%)
1 Stack Cobble*______75%__________________61___________________19.06%
2 Stacks Cobble*_____50%__________________32___________________10%
3 Stacks Cobble*_____35%__________________22___________________6.88%
4 Stacks Cobble*_____20%__________________10___________________3.13%
1 Grass Block________20%_______ __________7____________ ______2.19%
2 Grass Blocks_______15%__________________6____________________1.19%
5 Grass Blocks_______10%__________________5____________________1.56%
8 Glass Blocks_______20%_________________12____________________3.75%
16 Glass Blocks______15%___________ _______8____________________2.50%
8 Slimeballs________25%__________________21______________ _____6.56%
16 Cookies_________25%___________ _______23___________________7.19%
16 Lapis Lazuli______25%__________________16______________ _____5%
8 Bottle O' Ench._____25%__________________12____________________3.75%
16 Redstone________25%__________________11______________ _____3.44%
3 Iron Ingots_______20%___________________6____________________1.88%
6 Iron Ingots_______10%___________________4____________________1.25%
Iron Pick__________35%____________ ______17____________________6.56%
Diamond Pick_______15%__________________2____________________0.63%
1 Diamond_________10%__________________ 2____________________0.63%
2 Voter Keys________35%__________________22____________________6.88%
1 Common Key______25%________________ __12____________________3.75%
1 Rare Key_________20%__________ ________9____________________2.81%