Questioning /gen probabilities.

Discussion in 'Discussion' started by KhalDrogo, Mar 21, 2022.

  1. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Experienced Member

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    Drogo strongly suspects the ore generation probabilities stated by the /gen command are not correct.
    Over the last few weeks, Drogo has mined enough stone such that the yield of ores should very closely represent that expected from the actual probabilities.

    This is the result.
    upload_2022-3-21_19-57-36.png

    Iron ore rates are pretty close but the others are a fair way off.

    Drogo is wondering if anyone else has noticed this. Drogo understands that maybe people don't mine so much to be able to tell, and most may not be using silk touch so it will be difficult to know exactly how much of the ores that break were generated.
    However, if you look at just the iron ore and gold ore generated in any decently long mining session, if the quoted numbers are correct, you should find that you get about 2.7 times as much gold ore as you do iron ore. Drogo finds he usually gets very similar amounts of gold ore as he does iron every time.
     
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  2. Qoby
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    Qoby Active Member

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    I will say I used to mine a lot and I can't ever remember getting significantly more gold than iron. Good work Drogo, I might also try this in a few days to see what's up.
     
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  3. JAWD543
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    JAWD543 Active Member

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    Makes sense why ore rates don't seem to match /gen. They should update it so we can get more ores, would also help no ranks.
     
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  4. Ca1
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    Ca1 Senior Member

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    Maybe run the test a few times and see the results, or try with a larger amount of stone mined, I know you are able to mine lots more stone than that in a week!
     
  5. Awesomolocity
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    Awesomolocity Well-Known Member

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    First of all
    what? :eek:

    Secondly - yeah I feel like I also get approximately similar amounts of gold to iron - enough that I doubt I'm getting nearly 3x as much gold for sure. I actually notice this most regarding redstone though - it's supposed to be slightly more common than iron, but I absolutely get way more iron ore than redstone ore.

    And lastly - I'm curious how you tracked all of this? Did you just mine a bunch and let it all collect in a ton of chests or...? (I'd like to know since I also wanna try this experiment)
     
  6. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Experienced Member

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    Almost 300,000 is enough to be confident in the results.
    Drogo knows Ca1 is also able to mine a lot of stone, and would be keen to get his feedback on ore production.

    There are several stone gen designs that are at the high production end that produce about 400 stone per minute. At that rate, this would be about 12.5 hours.

    Yes, Drogo tracked it by storing the stone with some account for clag.

    Red stone drops are certainly the most off, with only about a quarter of the quoted value.

    Drogo has made a bug report and was keen to see if others were noticing the same, which it appears they are.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 21, 2022
  7. NightxCourt
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    NightxCourt Member

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    Honestly, props to you for being able to track all of this! I would lose count after a while of mining cobble. Nice study!
     
  8. Qoby
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    Qoby Active Member

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    After some thought I figured I could apply my very minimal amount of statistics knowledge that I was able to retain somehow. This bernoulli trial equation is giving the probability of getting 34 or less redstone from 285265 mined blocks with the supposed redstone probability of .04%. If what Drogo said is true, this is about as improbable as Dream's illegitimate minecraft speedruns.
    (0.000000000000000117% chance)

    TLDR: Is it possible Drogo is just unlucky?
    Answer: FAT CHANCE

    [​IMG]
     

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    Last edited: Mar 21, 2022
  9. minifigman
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    minifigman Member

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    Very odd, should at the very least be looked in to. To remove any error and have the best results I’d suggest running 2-3 more trials at approximately the same length then averaging the drops from all runs together to see a more accurate number.
     
  10. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Experienced Member

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    Further trials are not required. Drogo isn't trying to determine exactly what the percentages are. They are accurate enough to show that the quoted values are incorrect.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 22, 2022
  11. Gamzee24
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    Gamzee24 Loner Premium

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    well since most people agree with Drogo on this, and that Drogo is very confident on his findings, maybe this thread should be moved to "Suggestions?"
     
  12. KhalDrogo
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    KhalDrogo Experienced Member

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    It's already in the bug section. It's not really a suggestion.
    Drogo was just curious to see if others had noticed it as well.
     
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  13. Gamzee24
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    Gamzee24 Loner Premium

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    ah I was going to suggest that but I didn't see it right away. I forgot the bug section was under "Reports"
     

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